The Fuse is Lit

The Fuse is Lit

North Africa and The Middle East have long been reservoirs for governments headed by autocratic or dictatorial heads of state.  The United States has maintained largely favorable relations with them as a hedge against Islamic extremism and to foster other American interests in that area.  The recent uprising in Tunisia has spread to Algeria and Egypt.  These remain somewhat different from the unrest in the Middle East in that the protests have not been religious in nature but, rather, political.  They have been a result of poverty and want that is endemic in the general population.  They have not, as yet, developed an identity or an overarching philosophy that will identify them.  It bears mentioning, though, that the only kinds of institutions that are allowed to flourish outside of government sanctioned institutions are those affiliated with the Islamic faith.  I think it is logical to assume that there is a high likelihood that Islamic forces will try to become the faces of the revolutions as was the result in Iran.

In Egypt, one of our most staunch allies, Mohamed El Baradei has returned to attempt to provide secular leadership to the uprising.  It remains to be seen whether or not he has a following but, in the meantime, he has been placed under house arrest.  The Muslim brotherhood is likely to gain a foothold in the rebellion without El Baradei to counter it and that will not be a good thing for the United States.

The revolts in Jordan and the fall of the government in Lebanon complete the encirclement of Israel by governments in turmoil and ripe for the plucking by the Islamic extremists.  Of course, they are aided and abetted by the Iranians.  The Iranian backed Hezbollah is likely to gain a majority and form a government in Lebanon, which will move in lockstep with the Syrians.

The Egyptians have the ability to put down the rebellion with force but that is not necessarily a desirable outcome for the United States.  Television reports showed a reporter holding up a tear gas canister that was proudly stamped “Made in the USA”.  It is not a great leap for the people in the street to make a connection from us to the regime that oppresses them.

The United States is walking a tightrope here and someone is at the ends shaking it.  We don’t want to appear to be a part of the oppressors as we are in Iran after supporting the Shah but, at the same time, we want to maintain good relations with the present regimes if they should prevail.  Egypt in particular is critical to our foreign policy regarding Israel since it secures the southern border with Gaza.  The government that was favorable to us in Lebanon is out of power and that secured the northern border with Israel.  Jordan secures the eastern border and King Abdullah and his family have long been friends of the United States.  To his credit, King Abdullah and his father have been making gradual adjustments toward a more democratic state but that may not be enough.

On the Arabian peninsula Yemen continues to be a hotbed of radicalism and a haven for those who would do us harm.  Saudi Arabia is just trying to stay out of the mess and they are probably our best friend in that area even though they provide most of the financial backing to Al Qaeda. 

The conclusion cannot be escaped that our thirst for Middle Eastern oil and unwavering support for Israel is exacting a terrible price.  Our support of regimes that routinely oppress their population with weapons we sell them and funding we send them gives the populations little reason to expect that we will support democracy wherever we find it.  The prosecution of the war in Iraq and our current struggles in Afghanistan and Pakistan make it easy to depict the United States as an enemy of Islam to people whose only news of the outside world comes from a mosque, or at best, Al Jazeera.

We still have Saudi Arabia in our camp but that will not last forever.  Sooner or later the rulers of that country will have to face their populations.  When that happens our dependence on Middle Eastern oil will have a dramatic and deadly impact on our struggling economy that will make us look with envy at the oil shortages of the 1970s.

The question of where we go from here must be faced.  Are we prepared to take our nation into war in the Middle East to protect the ability of the Israelis to deny the Palestinians a homeland?  Are we prepared to use our military to occupy the Middle East to secure a lifeline to oil?

These two questions are at the crux of our foreign policy and every other question revolves around them.  If we are fortunate enough to escape immediate disaster then we must begin to change our world view and its pitfalls.