Seasons of Change

What would you do to feed your family. What kind of desperate act would you commit if your family was in danger of starving. Would you steal? Would you beg? Would you inflict bodily harm upon someone to take their food?

A couple of weeks back President Obama issued a new set of regulations to govern greenhouse gases and a suitable hue and cry ensued. They go a bit further than the previous regulations but not a lot however the issue was seized upon by people from coal producing states and politicians seeking an opening through which to land a jab at the President's party. Even the President admitted that the proposed standards will not be enough to turn the tide of catastrophe alone. If they do not prompt others to follow suit then humanity faces a tough road indeed. Many scientists say we have already passed the point where solutions were easy and that now we will not be able to escape some hardship from the resultant climate change. But, as he said, we must start somewhere and there is always a chorus of exhortations for the United States to step out into the lead. To be sure, they are usually trying to promote war but this may still prove to be a golden moment.

There is very little scientific disagreement that climate change is occurring and that humans are responsible. We can measure by different means how much carbon dioxide has been in the air for hundreds of thousands of years. We can tell the difference between that produced from natural events and that produced from events caused by humans. The extent of our pain is all that remains to be determined but we can look about us and see some of the pain beginning. Drought in California is creating an impossible habitat in which to grow much of the food that feeds America. Fires in the Northwest are almost insurmountable, fed by the arid landscape and they began well before the usual fire season. Heat indexes around the globe are soaring while the icecaps and glaciers are melting at an increasing rate. Climate change will not only result in heat but also in more extreme weather events. Here in our own area it has been a terrible year to try to grow crops and that will result in higher prices and greater food insecurity. The amount of fresh food we personally preserve annually has taken a drastic hit so we will be making up the difference at the supermarket. By the way, have you noticed the price of many food items? This winter our usual supply from California will be interrupted. Have you noticed that it is almost impossible to buy a good orange?

My parents grew up during the depression. My father in Louisville and my mother in Leslie County. Mom's family were subsistence farmers meaning they grew practically everything they consumed. I have heard many times of how by winter's end they would be eating corn mush and eagerly awaiting the first flush of spring greens in the hills. Dad had it a bit tougher because crops don't grow well on the West end of Louisville. His family did fairly well until the great Ohio River flood of 1927 which wiped them out. There was no social safety net and his family never recovered. He told of picking up coal that had fallen from rail cars to sell and to heat with. Food was scarce.

During the dust bowl years of the 1930s some five million people migrated out of a population of 123 million. If you extrapolate those numbers to the present time that would be 15 million people on the move seeking food and shelter. In the 1930s about 50% of the population lived in urban areas. Now it is 80%. As I said, it is hard to grow crops in concrete and blacktop. According to the USDA 17% of Americans live in households that experience food insecurity. That is 50 million people. Now, imagine what it would be like if a large number of those people left the cities to look for food. It is already happening all over the world. People are moving by the millions to escape poverty, hunger or danger. You can't stop that with all the fences in the world. Nor should you want to.

Climate change will make these factors explode. When the land can no longer produce overwhelming bounties of food then people will go to where the food is. When coastal land disappears at high tide those people will leave and go somewhere. When competition for necessities increases so will the violence used to protect them. We think of our society and civilization as being indestructible but the truth is it is held together by a thread. One that, if broken, will allow the unraveling of the web that supports us in our comfort. Climate change has the potential to do that. Already the Pentagon designates climate change as a major danger to national security because people will go where the food is.

So, can the United States step out to lead the way? Can we show the world that we are ready to tackle the most pressing issue facing us today? Will we permit the politicians to use scare tactics and xenophobia for personal gain? Carly Fiorina said in an interview with Katie Couric that everyone agrees that one country acting alone can do nothing so why should we subject our people to unnecessary hardship. That is certainly a true statement but it is going on ten years now since “An Inconvenient Truth” and we have squandered our best opportunities. I cited the dust bowl, the depression and widespread migration of people as instances of economic hardship resulting from ecological and financial disaster. The coming catastrophe will be greater. At what point can we come to think that another nation's polluting of the atmosphere is an act of war against us warranting action to preserve our way of life?

My Take is this. There are many things that can be done but the arguments against taking those steps are short term economic ones. Powerful entities don't want to become irrelevant but they must either by design or by fate. For the number crunchers: In Kentucky there are about 13,000 coal related jobs. There are over 82,000 automotive related jobs. The King is dead.