What
Now?
The other day I went to my bank. I
pulled up to my drive-through as usual to deposit some checks and
noticed that I couldn't see into the bank through the window. As I
was sitting there confused a young man came up to me and explained
that they no longer had humans that would assist me. Instead they had
installed machines on which I could see an image of a human (I
suppose) in Lexington (as if that would awe me with WOW factor and
assuage my concerns) who would assist me far better than a real
personal person could. I told him I didn't think so and that I would
park and go inside. After all, we used to do that all the time. So,
I did that and expressed my dissatisfaction to the teller who tried
to tell me it would be all better. I noted that there were two
tellers and six windows and I had to wait.
I should have seen it coming. After
all, they made it so that I could perform almost all of my banking
functions on my cell phone. Also, it has been quite a while now
since Wal-Mart installed “speedy checkout” machines. They also
have perhaps two or three registers open for people who want a
personal experience and who are curmudgeons who don't want to talk to
machines.
Shortly after I turned 18 I got a job
at a service station. Remember those things. We pumped gas, checked
oil and water, washed the windshield and offered to check air
pressure. Inside we could do oil changes and light repair such as
fixing flats and sometimes we'd get to sell some big ticket item. I
absolutely loved that job. It was during summer and I worked 80 or
90 hours a week. I'm sure I wasn't making much better than three
bucks and hour but it was more money than I'd ever had. Plus, the
drag cars would all gas up with the high octane and that did WOW me.
In addition it was a great place to meet girls. I got kind of caught
up in a time loop there but there is no place like that now. You
even have to pump your own gas and it costs about ten times as much.
No one there to ask you how you're doing and would you like those
tires checked.
Now you can even order at a “kiosk”
at McDonald's for your convenience. Is it convenient when you're
standing there trying to figure out how to operate the “kiosk”
while a line of millenials or evenyounger people are standing behind
you looking at you like you're some kind of anachronism (which, of
course, you are).
No matter how much of a curmudgeon I am
there is no way I'm going to turn back the onslaught of automation.
This is probably how the blacksmith felt when the automobile came
along. What did the blacksmiths do for a job when that happened?
One thing we older folks remember are the stories our parents told us
of The Great Depression and what our history teachers told us of the
Gilded Age and the birth of labor unions that restored a bit of hope
to the laborer.
Where am I going with this? Here it
is. What are all of these people who are losing these menial jobs
going to do to earn a living, desperate though it may be? How will
we, as a nation, deal with this new demographic that is unequipped to
move along with the technology to a superior job. Where will your
kids get summer jobs? Where will those who can't subsist on Social
Security find additional income? Where will those who are too old to
retrain and are undesirable to companies fill the void until their
Social Security and Medicare kick in find the income they need?
I hear “experts” say that we will
have jobs in the new economy. The “experts” also tell us that
there will be jobs in the skilled trades for many. Both of these are
true but not for the people that I have described. Right now we are
creating a new underclass made up of the former middle class. Blue
collar jobs as well as labor jobs are automating and putting people
out of jobs. There is a whole underclass of Americans who innately
know this but feel better blaming NAFTA and those immigrants because
they can put a face on that. Those people are going to make an
impact and they already have by electing a President who rails at
them with false accusations to reinforce their anger. Make no
mistake, this is a real change in the economic life of the United
States. It is massive and no one is proposing solutions.
There are solutions but reasonable
people are going to have to articulate them in order for them to take
place. They are solutions that will require changing the fabric of
society but the alternative for our citizens is to fall into the trap
of fascism and demagoguery. The is the path that Germany took
following WWI and it was ugly. It can't happen here? Don't be
naive.
I'm going to offer a few. If you have
alternatives feel free to express them. The skilled trades are a
very good option. These are jobs that are in short supply and that
can't be exported. Many of them will require robots to be far more
sophisticated than they are now to do. More training and education
in the technical fields such as coding and research and development.
For a time the medical fields will be looking for employees but that
won't last forever. Have you noticed what is missing? That's right.
What about the people over fifty who won't have time to retrain or
find anyone to hire them?
One of the ideas that is being tossed
about is providing everyone with a Guaranteed Minimum Income. Many
will rail about paying people who don't work or can't make enough to
live. Many will say that we can't afford it and we can't if we
continue to handle our economy the way we do. The cost will be
massive and where will it come from?
Roughly speaking, the top 10% of
families own 80% of the wealth in the United States. That disparity
is greater than it was during the Gilded Age and we have just
endured another round of tax cuts for the wealthy. Spending power
for what used to be the middle class has been flat since the
presidency of Ronald Reagan. 35 years. The wealth of the top 10% is
another story entirely because that is where the money went.
My Take is that we've got to go where
the money is. There's a lot of ways to do it but that is an
inescapable fact. That light in the distance? That's the future and
it's coming fast.
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