Gotta Go Now!

Time for Renewal

There are reports that the Pakistani Intelligence Agency is detaining citizens who are accused of funneling information to the CIA concerning the traffic in and out of the compound where Osama Bin Laden was found and eventually killed. We might find that difficult to fathom but if we put it in another context it is more believable. After all, we might find it a problem if our citizens were spying for foreign military operatives. However, this only goes to demonstrate the difficulty of the relationship between the United States and Pakistan, which is an indispensable part of our war effort in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is landlocked and our supply lines go through Pakistan. Pakistan is where the militants go to seek refuge and Pakistan has a history of supporting disruptive elements to further its own ends. Very often the goals of Pakistan and the United States are at odds and this has been a major drawback to our effort there.

Soon General Petraeus is to deliver a report to the President on the condition of our war in Afghanistan. Based on that report the President has said that he will begin to draw down troops in that far away land. There is a lot of debate as to how many troops we should remove and what the pace of removal should be. There is debate on whether we should continue with the anti-insurgency strategy or adopt an anti-terrorist strategy which, incidentally, would require far less men and women in the struggle.

Our stated goal has always been to capture or kill Osama Bin Laden and degrade the ability of Al Qaeda to strike us or our allies. We have accomplished the first and now we must decide what strategy will best suit the latter. Many have said all along that in order to prevent Al Qaeda from using Afghanistan as a base for training terrorists we must establish a self-sustaining government there that can defend itself from Al Qaeda. The former government of the Taliban worked hand in fist with Al Qaeda but may not be so inclined these days.

When we adopt our future posture I think we must take into account several different concerns. Can we accomplish our goal with the anti-terrorist strategy? What is the cost to the American taxpayer? What will Pakistan do either to help or hinder us. What are the likely outcomes?

General Petraeus himself has said that there is not a military solution for what has become the dual concerns of Afghanistan and Pakistan. We have to always remember that Pakistan is a nuclear armed country that is the prime proliferator of nuclear weapons in the world and that they are focused more on their continuing unease with India that they are with Afghanistan and the United States. Pakistan can be relied on to do what is in their best interests with no particular allegiance to the United States.

We are left with President Karzai and his government on which to place our reliance. That is not a bright outlook. President Karzai has shown little enthusiasm for removing the corrupting influences in his government and his own emotional state has been called into question. Afghanistan remains a country of tribal fiefdoms and its main agricultural crop is the opium poppy. There are some minerals that are there to be harvested and China is busily making arrangements to do just that while we are there spending our resources and lives.

We all want to see the United States emerge victorious and vindicated in the eyes of all the world's nations but that just may not be possible. It may have to be enough to just get out with our honor and our skins. For us to achieve a higher result we will have to have a reliable partner to whom we can turn over power and we just don't have that. Nor is it likely that keeping 50,000 or 75,000 troops there in perpetuity will make a better result possible.

We have spent what will become trillions of dollars and thousands of lives in these two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and we put them on the credit card. The first we did not need to do and should not have done. The second was near success nine years ago when we diverted our attention. There is no prospect of planting a Jeffersonian democracy there just as there was no chance in Iraq. Democracy must rise from the people. It cannot be planted from the top down. There are no good choices left and we have work to do at home. We must not shy from our international obligations but we must be able to discern when it is in our best interests to decline supreme sacrifice.

We cannot draw down nearly 100,000 troops immediately but we should begin to remove them at a brisk pace that will protect our interests there. It is time for our men and women to come home and help us rebuild our struggling society. There are just no good choices for doing otherwise.