Hang On.....Just a Few More Days

I am glad to report that this time next week, barring some disaster, we will have another Presidential election in the bank and we will be able to get on with our normal criticisms and bickering. I don't know if it is just weariness at the constant sniping or if I am just getting old and tired of it. Perhaps both. But, at least, in a weeks time perhaps all of the political ads, negative and otherwise, will be over for another year or two.

We have some serious business to attend to. The euphemistically named “fiscal cliff” will be upon us. Without some kind of budget deal the automatic cuts programmed into a previous debate will kick in removing $500 billion from each of the military budget and social programs over the next decade. It was set up to be so severe so that the budget negotiators would be terrified of it but they were more terrified of having to go tell their constituents they needed to lighten up a little bit. I've said it before but is being elected such a big deal that one would forsake his duty to the nation just to uphold his intransigence? I suppose just having to ask that question answers it.

Everyone knows that we are going to have to have a combination of both spending cuts and new revenues. The numbers just don't work any other way. I don't have that big a problem with cutting our obese defense budget and others feel the same way about our social programs. The other side of the coin though is that cutting that much from only a couple of sources would put hundreds of thousands if not millions of people out of work and would likely drop us into recession again. The federal government and the national deficit are NOT just like your checkbook no matter what you are told by the simpletons on television. Like it or not, all federal spending is stimulating to the economy just by its nature. In terms of economic impact spending on salaries for our military is no different than spending federal dollars on a new bridge. Both employ people using tax receipts. So, if we stop spending we don't just save that money. On the other end we don't generate that money so it is not like your checkbook. If you don't spend money then you save it. If the government doesn't spend it then jobs are not created on the other end.

The Great Recession has caused tax receipts to plummet and that has created much of our budget deficit. We need to employ people to generate more tax receipts and, let's face it, only large corporations, the 1 % and our government have access to that kind of money. In fact, those large corporations are sitting on trillions of dollars they could be using to invest in our country hoping to get a better deal after the election.

Our economy is transitioning from a manufacturing economy to a service economy and we have to have workers ready to step into the jobs in the new economy. These jobs will require more education that previous jobs and skills our workforce does not have. How will we deal with that unless government steps in to help train those people. The alternative is to drop farther into a third world economy then we will be competitive with Mexico and China. Not good for the American consumer.

If we are to export anything then we will have to decide what it is that we can export that the rest of the world can't export just as cheaply. We still have an edge in technology and innovation but we desperately need mathematicians and engineers to work there. Now we are importing those skills from the rest of the world because we have not educated enough to serve the domestic market. In the old economy that would work because our businesses had a captive market. Now with a global economy that is not so. The market is world wide and we have to compete world wide.

There are ways to do that but those ways require some direction from government rather than just allowing demand to create the impetus for change. Germany still has a strong industrial and manufacturing base even though their products are costly. The reason is the world renowned German engineering. Germany uses a system of trade schools and partnerships with business to train workers. This model alone will not work for the United States but it can be part of the plan. Germany has a population of about 81.5 million and the United States has a population of over 350 million. We will have to have multiple plans and there is no single entity that can lead this transformation other than government. To me, this is plain to see. To others loyalty to worn out ideologies carry the day.

It appears that the President will win reelection but not by a large number. The House of Representatives will remain in Republican hands while the Democratic Party will carry the Senate but not with a filibuster proof majority. One of the things that absolutely needs to be done is to rewrite the rules to allow for a majority of votes to pass legislation at some point. It is just insane to require a super-majority of 60 to pass the simplest of acts and it has created paralysis in Congress.

Very few are going to get everything they want. All of us are going to have to give a little to get a little and that is the biggest change of all. Let's try to get behind our elected leaders and let them know we won't necessarily fire them if they compromise but that we will certainly fire them if they won't.