State’s voters are paddling upstream
KENTUCKY, GOP WILL BOTH LOSE IF MINDS DON’T OPEN
America zigged and Kentucky zagged.
The majority of the nation’s voters rejected right-wing politics in last
Tuesday’s election, but Kentuckians outside of Lexington and Louisville
embraced them all the more.
Big swings have become the norm in
national elections, because neither party has succeeded in solving
America’s problems on its own. But deeper forces may have been at work
this time.
Much of the post-election analysis
has focused on demographic shifts that go against the hard conservative
turn the Republican Party has taken in recent years.
Young people, women and minorities
voted overwhelmingly for President Barack Obama’s economic policies over
those of challenger Mitt Romney, and they rejected socially
conservative candidates for the U.S. Senate.
Republicans’ run to the right has
been marked by increasingly rigid ideology on both economic and social
issues. But analysts of all stripes warn that without more tolerance of
diversity — including intellectual diversity — the GOP could become the
incredible shrinking party of old, white men.
Demographics are destiny, and it
will be interesting to see how Republicans cope with these demographic
trends. As it does, Kentucky will be in the spotlight, because the
state’s two high-profile U.S. senators now seem to be caught between
Barack and a hard place.
Voters in many states signaled that
they have grown tired of Tea Party radicals. Paul won election in
Kentucky two years ago as a Tea Party idol and immediately started
preening like a future presidential candidate. Are his 15 minutes of
fame about up?
By re-electing Obama and giving
Democrats more seats in the Senate, voters rejected Senate Minority
Leader Mitch McConnell’s relentless obstructionism. He went to great
lengths over the past four years to oppose the president on just about
everything.
While other Republican
leaders were making conciliatory
statements after the election, McConnell, the anti-Henry Clay, struck
his usual pose against compromise. He indicated he will continue to
fight against raising historically low income taxes on America’s richest
people to lower the nation’s budget deficit, even though opinion polls
show overwhelming public support for it.
In an especially cynical comment,
McConnell called on Obama to “move to the political center.” McConnell
is nowhere near the political center himself, and the Tea Party wing of
his party would need a telescope to even see it.
Kentucky and other Southern states
have played a big role in supporting the Republican party’s anti-tax,
antigovernment ideology. But that is deeply ironic when you look at the
statistics, said Ron Crouch, director of research and statistics for
Kentucky’s Education and Workforce Development Cabinet and the guru of
Kentucky demographic trends.
Kentucky and other
Republican-leaning “red” states tend to receive much more federal
assistance than they contribute in taxes, while the reverse
is true of Democrat-leaning “blue” states.
In Kentucky, Crouch noted, the largest per-capita federal transfer payments go to poor, rural counties that vote Republican.
Kentucky and other states whose
populations are largely white, aging, rural and traditionally
male-dominated will increasingly be overshadowed, both politically and
economically, unless and until they catch up to these broader
demographic trends, Crouch said.
“We need to be more supportive of
immigration and open to diversity,” he said of Kentuckians. “When I
drive around Kentucky, I see a lot of Confederate flags.”
Immigrants and minorities could play
an important role in keeping the state’s small towns and rural areas
vibrant as the white population ages and shrinks from declining birth
rates.
But Kentucky already is becoming
more diverse than many people realize, Crouch said. The majority of
Kentucky’s population growth since 2000 — and all of it under the age of
18 — has been among minorities, especially Hispanics.
As immigrant, minority and urban
populations grow in Kentucky, voting patterns are likely to become less
Republican, unless that party moves
more to the political center. The same is true as women gain more economic and political clout in the state.
“Blue-collar men are an endangered
species,” Crouch said. “We’re seeing an economy more and more that is
favoring female employment.”
Kentucky’s future, both economically and politically, will depend not only on the
availability of jobs, but whether
those jobs pay enough to support middle-class families, Crouch thinks.
And those families are bound to become more diverse, like it or not.
Tom Eblen: (859) 231-1415. Email:
teblen@herald-leader.com
. Twitter: @tomeblen. Blog:
tomeblen.bloginky.com
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