The Times They Are a-Changing (except in Hazard and on Mars).

Word From the Dark Side

Come senators, congressmen Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt Will be he who has stalled
There's a battle outside And it is ragin'
It'll soon shake your windows And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'.

Bob Dylan

The news of the week for those who may be weary of the rumors of war flying about DC so carelessly is of recent talk of consequences of climate change by people who one would not normally think would be speaking up. However, their concern is well placed even if lacking in empathy for the billions of people who will face extreme hardship as a result.

The CEO of Cargill, the largest privately held company in the US and an agri-giant, is speaking out on what can be expected based on projections of decreasing crop yields due to loss of arable farmland. He ought to know since Cargill products reach globally into almost everything that people consume. Cargill grows crops around the world and is looking to use some of the techniques it uses in hotter countries to apply here. It bears mentioning that hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland in the Central Valley of California have been taken out of production due to lack of water. In Texas the drought has forced the sale of cattle herds which in turn has driven up the cost of beef. If you have tried to buy a roast lately you know about this.

The others ringing the bell are Michael Bloomberg (independent), Hank Paulson (Republican) and Thomas Steyer (Democrat) who is a hedge fund manager. These men who are not just leaders but giants in their fields are releasing the results of a study to determine the impact of climate change on investments and financial transactions. These guys don't deal in chump change, theirs is the high stakes world of international finance. They don't pretend to have solutions although each one of them is smart enough to have some far reaching ideas. They purport to present this study to assist investors in managing risk. Managing risk is the key ingredient in financial investment transactions since it is what determines interest rates and profitability. Among these titans there is no ideological debate over whether or not climate change is happening or not or whether it is due to human influence. That debate is both moot and settled.

This report says that up to $100 Billion of property will be under water by 2050. Temperatures will become so extreme that worker productivity will decline by as much as 35% and what is now cropland will become arid. These are risks that are foreseen by these men whose very lives have been spent on managing risk. They manage money and that is not an ideological practice. Hank Paulson said that if you invest in municipal bonds, Treasury notes or long range stocks these risks will be of prime importance to you. The ramifications of failure to mitigate these risks will make life miserable for those who do not have the resources to deal with it and will lead to widespread deprivation and death.

The point being made here is that these guys are not given to irrational thought or action. If they are considering these things then they have a reasonable suspicion that the risk is great enough to influence their behavior and investing. Compare the rationale of these level heads to the Luddites who are still denying that climate change is occurring and even if they will admit it is occurring do not admit that there is anything we can or should do about it. The callousness of those people is stunning because, make no mistake, it will be the least of us who will bear the brunt of the sacrifice. But that is nothing new. That happened during the Great Recession and every other economic meltdown that the wealthy elite have foisted on the the common people.

Then we must consider the people that we have chosen to represent our interests. Are we getting our money's worth or are they really representing those who drop the mega-bucks into their campaign war chests and favorite charities? I have always heard that money talks and that seems to be the case. What we hear from them is that we can't undertake these things right now because it will kill jobs. Personally I think that is a truckload of hooey meant to quieten the people whose heads are on the chopping block. Consider what is going to happen to jobs when the chickens come home to roost. Will your Senator or Congressman be there to suffer with you or will he or she be living in Alexandria, Virginia and have a job on K Street?

I am going to go out on a limb here and predict that this winter will see a significant increase in prices for fresh produce. My Take is that if the big money makers are starting to consider the risks inherent in climate change then maybe we should get on board.